EPL Title Chase Update: Weeks 3-5

This post will look at the big four teams (realistically) involved in a chase for the title this year; I acknowledge that other teams such as Everton and Tottenham should be included in an assessment of potential "top four" teams, but I am - for time constraints - purely interested in the race for the trophy. In the interest of a pre-amble, I should point out my suspicions that this might be one of the most open races since the mid-2000s, when you had three-four teams running down the trophy till the final weeks. 

Manchester City's Joe Hart in a familiar pose this September.

MANCHESTER CITY

Last three EPL results:

3-1 W vs. QPR

1-1 D vs. Stoke City

1-1 D vs. Arsenal

Man City have only won a single game in their last five attempts; said alternatively, they are win-less in their last four (they lost in a thriller to Real Madrid in the CL; as I start writing this they lost to Aston Villa in the Capital One league cup). Thanks to a strong start, they are only six points off of Chelsea's pace (and 3 points behind arch-rivals, United). However, Mancini and the fans of City should take a moment to notice that there are points for concern which need addressing. First and foremost, Manchester City have not had a clean-sheet since the pre-season; alarming for a team which boasted a respectable defensive record last year. What is happening? One suggestion might be that the 3-5-2 all-out attack of City is finally being broken down by it's opponents who are exposing the three across the back; that certainly might be the case (City have allowed 43 shots to be taken against them which puts them slightly above the average for the EPL). Although, I think the answer might lie in a significant stat: Joe Hart has one of the worst stop percentages in the EPL at the moment (http://www.thescore.com/epl/goalie_splits/clean_sheets). Considering some of the heroics that Hart pulls out week-in and week-out, this is certainly a jaw-dropper although statistics don't lie (in this case; only in positivist approaches to the social sciences). 

City's fans - and apologists - will no doubt point to the absence of Aguero as a potential reason for this drop in win-rate; although the previous section definitely merits examination by even their most die-hard supporters. City is leaking goals. 

What about the mid-field? In the interest of time - story of life - I will focus on two divergent players. Yaya Toure is having another great season for Manchester City and could certainly be credited with keeping them in the title-race with his play-making and (surprisingly quick) runs into the enemy's box. On the other side of the coin: Silva was a puppet-master for City last season and I just don't feel that he has recovered from being an awkwardly placed appendage in the European Cup's Spanish side. Don't get me wrong: he isn't playing poorly by any step of the imagination, but he isn't the force he was last season. 

Chelsea will want to see a lot more from new-boy Oscar in the EPL.

 CHELSEA FC

Last three EPL results:

2-0 W vs. Newcastle

0-0 D vs QPR

1-0 W vs. Stoke City

Chelsea are the league leaders and are looking to hold onto that position (although their bout with Arsenal this weekend might have major consequences for the title race). They are unbeaten this season in the English Premier League (with their only loss being vs. Athletico Madrid in the Super Cup). 

Rather than harping about their obvious pros, let me focus on a few little chinks that have made appearances throughout this early season. First and foremost, their games in Europe versus Athletico Madrid and Juventus have shown that their defense is capable of making defensive errors (with an aging John Terry and an unpredictable David Luiz predictably the culprits). The fact that these errors are showing up against stronger sides demonstrates that perhaps Chelsea will not fare as well when faced against other title challengers (their biggest challenge being a so-so Newcastle side). And therein lies the clincher: Chelsea seems to be performing very differently versus weak and strong sides and I suspect that it might have to do with Eden Hazard's unconvincing displays in important fixtures. Hazard has been one of the players of the season if you look at Chelsea's victories. However in losses (and an unfortunate draw) versus Manchester City (Community Shield), Athletico Madrid and Juventus, Hazard has often found it hard to get into the game, often appears lost in the action and gives away sloppy passes to the opposing teams. This will definitely be one of the areas of the field to watch. I am curious - as an impartial observer - how Chelsea will try to incorporate an in-form, youthful Oscar into the side, as well as Marko Marin when he returns to fitness. 

Gervinho must have sacrificed hair-growth for a third lung. 

ARSENAL

Last three EPL results:

2-0 W vs. Liverpool

6-1 W vs. Southampton

1-1 D vs. Manchester City

Most people would call an RVP-less Arsenal an outside shot for the title at best, although I would suggest that - barring injuries devastating the team -  Arsenal will keep pace with the pack for the duration of the season. 

Why? First and foremost, their defense is enviable. They have only let in two goals this season. The first one was versus Southampton and it featured Szczeny's return to play after an absence due to injury (while a bit of a howler; I think it was a reflection on match-fitness rather than current ability); the second due to a zonal defending mishap versus City (sidenote: when has zonal defending off of corners ever worked?!? Especially in the EPL. Man-marking or bust),, where Arsenal tried an unusual method of defending a corner and it didn't pay off. Sczceny's form and zonal defending blunders should be kept an eye on, but Arsenal look good defensively (even if they are letting an above average shots pepper their goal; most appear to be from a safe distance). 

Cazorla and Podolski continue to impress going forward with Podolski netting in three games on the trot; Cazorla is involved in everything and seems to be stepping into the vacant Fabregas role well. Robin Van Persie's ability to turn garbage-balls into goals (a skill he honed last season) will be missed in some of the big games, but the excellent play and work-rate of Podolski will keep the Arsenal fans pacified for the season. Additionally, in Podolski - more of a winger than a striker - they have a newfound ability to hold the ball up, rather than a traditional No. 10 to just bang the balls in (a role which RVP occasionally reverted to). A surprise revelation this season for Arsenal is Gervinho's work-rate, which is extraordinary - it is like having a new player on the field. Every play he is somehow involved in. Admittedly rough around the edges, this work-rate has been a positive force for Arsenal so far.  

The biggest discernable con for Arsenal is Giroud not fitting into the team at all; his poor touch in front of the net has only been surpassed by his terrible pass percentage. This might prove a problem for them as it will make the team unduly have to rely on the fitness and form of newboy Podolski and low-scoring (albeit doggedly hardworking) Gervinho. 

Vidic mimicks the fans' reaction over news that he's injured once again. 

MANCHESTER UNITED

Last three EPL results:

3-2 W vs. Southampton

4-0 W vs. Wigan

2-1 W vs. Liverpool

As you can see United has the best record in the last three games, being the only title-contender to put out three wins (they also sneaked out a win in the CL). However, there are a lot of asterixes that need to be addressed. Before I address the worries that Manchester United are facing, I will address the positives which have helped United achieve their results. 

Robin Van Persie and Kagawa - despite missing the Wigan game through slight injury - have been at the heart of United's good form. It's pleasant to see that my positive evaluation of their potential has held, five games in. Robin Van Persie dissuaded his doubters - who I admittedly I was until I saw him bag his first goal in a United shirt - with his heroic three-goal performance versus Southampton. Kagawa was voted the player of the month for August by United fans and rightly so - every win (outside of Wigan) has his stamp on it. His vision, fitness, ability and consistency are a testament to why Ferguson needed to have this player in his side. Other standout performances have been by Valencia (arguably the most consistent crosser of the ball in the EPL) and Carrick. The debuts by Buttner and Powell versus Wigan were sublime; with in particular Buttner displaying one of the most determined wing-back displays I've seen in the LB position in YEARS.

However, there are asterixes. Huge asterixes. The left side of the midfield is looking a little vacant; Nani cannot get off the ground this season and actually has been a larger hindrance to the team than an aid. Ryan Giggs has been moved more towards the center when he plays (where bless-his-heart he looks pretty indifferent and sloppy). I would almost advocate playing Buttner as LMF (since Fergie will no doubt insist on Evra remaining in the side) since his wing-play and ability to pop up in key attacking plays was apparent in his debut. 

The biggest asterix remains - for a second consecutive season - the defense and goalkeeper. This is for two reasons: defense and ability. United spent all their loot this summer on attacking options, but only purchased an attacking wingback for defensive cover. The arguments that people posed were that: Vidic is returning, Smalling, Jones and Evans exist as cover. First and foremost, Vidic is now going to be out for two-months after a mandatory knee surgery (propagating evidence for the theory that you can never truly regain fitness after a long absence). Secondly, Vidic HAS NOT LOOKED remotely comfortable with the defensive burden that was dropped on him since his return; he has not looked like the same player. His pace, positioning and decision-making have been off. Last season he complemented the the errors in Rio's game to make Rio still relevant; this season they are both looking uncomfortable together and allowing way too many shots against a terrified looking goalkeeper. Thirdly, Smalling, Jones and Evans have proven during their tenure at United that they have all the fitness potential of Wes Brown (meaning, that they are fit less than 50% of the time). This translates into: another patchy season where Fergie will be scrambling to put together ANY defense, much less his best one. 

On a related note: David DeGea has not won me over. I gave him the benefit of the doubt, but the fact remains that a goalkeeper between Manchester United's posts needs to have raw ability and - most importantly - good decision-making skills. DDG has amazing natural ability but quite clearly less-than-average decision-making skills (lower half of the table goalkeepers are dealing with set-pieces and crosses better than he does). Lindegaard has been the better of the two over both seasons and I hope that Fergie will continue to let the young Dane have a run out. 

In summation: the EPL is open ground for every team. The three teams who would be cited as clear favorites (MUFC, MCFC and CFC) all have emerged with defensive struggles and patchy performances in the midfield; the team written off as an outside shot at best, AFC,  has emerged with the strongest defense. GAME ON!! 

Borussia Dortmund's Early Season Review: European Dark Horses?

The three stars of  Bundasliga Champions Borussia Dortmund
"happen" to be Polish.
Lewandowski, Piszczek and Blaszczykowski.

Preamble: First and foremost, let me lead by admitting that running a blog has proven more timely than I considered, since I - unlike 75% of the media it seems - do make a conscious effort to fact-check. Initially I was hoping to pump out 3-4 entries per week. I think my realistic goal here-on-out will be 1-2 guaranteed entries per week. I am still hoping to pump out a weekend-review for the EPL's weekend (4) action but I might do a three-week-together (matchdays 3-5) lump next week sometime.

Borussia Dortmund. They are the Bundasliga's Barcelona - quick-passers, good extensive possession and a quick counter-attack. They have won the Bundasliga title two years running and completed a double last year, destroying Bayern Munich in the final 5-2. They have arguably some of the most passionate supporters in Germany - and Poland - and their appeal is growing worldwide. However despite looking like one of the world's top sides week-in and week-out in the Bundasliga, they really fell flat on their face in the Champions' League over their last two attempts. What are their chances this year? Let's break it down based on their opening games.

PROS:

Kagawa out, but Goetze and Reus In.
Losing one of the Bundasliga's top players to Manchester United would appear to be a blow to Borussia Dortmund. However, Jurgen Klopp didn't tear into his milk for long. One of the delightful "issues" that he had last year was in how to incorporate Wunderkidd Goetze into the side. With Pole Kuba in the form of his life, Kagawa providing a perfect link between Kuba and Lewandowski, it was hard to fit another attacking midfielder into the mix (Goetze's injuries last season also made the shuffling harder to attempt). However, Goetze is back in full fitness and ready to enjoy the attack. As an added bonus, Klopp used the Kagawa bundle to purchase Reus from Borussia Monchengladbach (where he alternated between striker / AMF to score 36 goals in 97 apperances from ages 20-23), one of the other most promising talents in the German player machine (to draw another Barca comparison; Reus came from their youth academy before going to another team and being purchased back for 17 million). Both players have fit into the team and developed an amazing relationship with Kuba, as well as midfield highlights Peresic and up-and-comer Gundogan (another young player I am impressed with).

Kuba Blaszczykowski's and Piszczek 's form.

Anyone who has watched Borussia Dortmund over the past two seasons might be forgiven for thinking they are watching a Polish game (minus, you know, the complete lack of consistency...) The Polish trio arguably - and not that hard of an argument - spearheaded last year's season's double. While Lewandowski is having a bit of slower start to the season, Kuba and Piszczek have found another gear this season for club and country. The overlapping run of the two on the right is one of the most effective counter-attacks I've seen! Piszczek's speed is really becoming apparant, as he frequently lays the ball of for Kuba, who then plays him into space & then Piszczek has developed an alarmingly accurate cross to find either Kuba, Lewy or newboys Reus or Goetze. This quick counter and cross is unlocking defenses effectively and I can see it being the key to qualifying out of the group of death, particularly against a shakey Real defense and a 3-man Man City defense. Kuba's stats are particularly impressive with four goals and two assists for club and country in this very early season; Pisczek has provided two assists and won a PK for his NT.

Mat Hummels and Subotic, defensive pairing.
Mat Hummels - while he had a howler against Italy in the Euros - is the top young German defender (notice a pattern yet?). Subotic is the the defensive partner to Serbia's Vidic for the Serbian NT. Combined they are providing to be quite the defensive pairing and should be able to contend with a lot of what the CL might throw at them, as long as Hummels doesn't get caught too far up field (what happened versus Italy). Their form this year, particularly verus Bayer Leverkussen is definitely a "plus".

*POTENTIAL* CONS:

Lewandowski's "disappearing" act & limited FW cover.

Lewandowski was the Bundasliga top scorer last year, scoring an impressive 30 goals. His off the ball movement can be very intelligent and his ability to link with his fellow Poles and formerly Kagawa is impressive. While he had a decent pre-season, his early season has seen him "disappear" for parts of the game, where he isn't as pro-active at appearing on the end of through-balls as he was last season. This behavior is especially - frusteratingly - evident in his performances for Poland. I do have faith that he will snap out of it and return to deadly form, once he develops the similar symbiosis with Reus and Goetze that he enjoyed with Kagawa. His stats aren't terrible however; with an assist and a goal to his name.

What could provide a genuine concern is injury to Lewandowski, with no suitable or logical replacement waiting in the wings. While Reus could push up to a striker role - or perhaps even Goetze - a dramatic loss of form or long-spell of injury for Lewy could really hinder BVB's European challenge.

Defensive depth.

Much like Manchester United, Borussia Dortmund is suffering from a noticeable lack of suitable defensive replacements if Piszczek, Hummels or Subotic gets injured. When Pisczek missed the game against Nurnberg, Borussia Dortmund looked shakey at the back - empty down the right wing - and a little sloppy defensively. This lack of depth will be something that will need to be addressed by Klopp in future transfer windows if Borussia Dortmund wants to become a dominant force in the Champions' League (a league with heavy injury tolls in the past few seasons).

Champtions League Prospects?

It is going to be very tough for all the teams in Group D. However as a commentator mentioned after their Bayer Leverkussen match: Borussia Dortmund is becoming "very European," and the players are showing signs of being very "mature and professional". With both Manchester City and Real Madrid (group and possibly tournament favorites) experiencing spotty form and signs of lack of cohesion in the squad, then perhaps Borussia Dortmund can be the surprise dark horse out of the group (and maybe the tournament). Klopp's team is becoming increasingly more like Barcelona in its playing style (quite distinctive from Bayern Munich's style) and perhaps this "winning" strategy will pay dividends for Borussia Dortmund. Here's hoping!

Have you heard the one about about "Uefa Financial Fair Play"?

Manchester City's Boardroom
after "UFP" was announced.

UEFA has "grabbed" headlines for imposing its "forward thinking" financial fairplay laws into place which is to ensure that clubs play "within their means". Twenty-three clubs have been affected by this first round of audits with their UEFA competition participation prize money being withheld until they can prove their finances are sustainable. Some bigger names DO make this list such as: Atletico Madrid, Malaga, Sporting, Rubin Kazan and Fenerbahce. For a complete list please read the link at the end of the article. 

You'd be forgiven if you have forgotten Mark Viduka's
Champions' League run with Leeds United. Who? Yeah.

As the opening graphic suggests I have a can of sass that I wish to open; however, I will first start by saying that UFF is a step in the right direction. 

One small step, not a giant leap for footy-kind however. Once again, I race ahead of myself. 

Over the years we have seen several big name clubs achieve financial pitfalls because of unsustainable spending (which often leads to book-cooking, auditing, penalties and disaster). The biggest examples that come to mind are Leeds United, Juventus, Portsmouth and Rangers. Leeds United and Rangers are perhaps the most explicit cases where a league contender (and winner) gets audited and tossed down several divisions (from which Leeds has yet to recover, ten years down the road; in 2002 they were in the semi-finals of the Champions' League). These types of financial decisions affect the whole league, the players and - most of all - the hard-working, big-paying fans who support the club and now have to watch the team that had played Valencia in the semis of the CF play (and lose) to fucking Brimbsy. Sustainability is good. Good for the environment, good for finances, good for football. 

500 million spent in four seasons is sustainable?
With no "legacy"-related revenues.
Ok, UEFA.

There is a big "but" in all this UFF talk however. If you look at the remainder of the names of the list you'll see a lot of minnows with irresponsible boardrooms who are just trying to compete in their leagues and make a splash in - at most - the Europa League. With teams afraid of the further steps of the UFF which might be unveiled in future seasons - including stiff financial penalties - smaller teams will be forced to stay small. While this might mean that "domestic" players get more development time, it does mean that a lot of mid-table teams with European aspirations might have to stay dreamers as they watch teams with endless loads of money be declared "sustainable". 

Which brings me to my main point. UFF actually helps the "worst" kind of football teams (in my opinion): the Oil-i-garch owned teams such as Chelsea FC, Manchester City, Shakhtar Donetsk and Paris St. Germain (plus all the other which might spring up as money laundering becomes more challenging under the Putin government). These teams will - in theory - always be sustainable because they almost literally have an endless supply of money (at least until dirty oil and natural gas becomes unfashionable). Now, these teams aren't entirely unaffected: (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/14482429) As this FAQ demonstrates, the books need to be balanced based on revenue generated by ticket-sales, shirt sales, tv deals, etc (which then cannot exceed the players coming in, salaries, etc). 

Ibrahimovich makes more in one month than some of the
clubs he will play against. Sustainable?

HOWEVER, two facts need to be recognized. First and foremost, these laws won't be fully enforced for three years, during which the Oil-i-garchs can spend another half a billion dollars on players (and investments which can generate "legit" income). Secondly, the penalties will be financial in nature and just as the oil companies which finance these clubs don't give a HOOT about their petty fines for destroying the environment, they are not likely to care about a typical UEFA slap-on-the-wrists (Racism fines at EUROS anyone??). Meanwhile, more mid-table, mid-income teams will feel the need to over-spend and cook their books in order to compete with these financially-bottomless juggernauts. 

If UFF is to actually accomplish the grand vision of preventing debt-driven clubs and instill "fairness" into UEFA competitions then it needs to do one of two big gestures: A) they need to actually set transfer and salary limits on teams entering it's big competitions (UCL and Europa League); B) they need to enforce this actively by KICKING OUT teams which step outside these tightly set boundaries; and C) UEFA really needs to establish a set of rules for the purchase and financing of football clubs so Manchester Cities do not keep occurring. 

You'll forgive me if I do not hold my breath. 

The link which inspired this rant: (http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/19557934) 

Champions League 2012/2013 Pt. II

Welcome back. For the next four groups, the dominant favorites are much more clear, so I'll focus most on points of interests and players to watch out for. 

GROUP E (Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, Nordjaelland)

Group E is relatively straightforward. While two seasons ago Shakhtar Donetsk demonstrated why they shouldn't be taken lightly after they dismantled Inter Milan in the R16, the likelihood of them being able to replicate this is questionable. And I've never heard of Nordaelland ...

The big story will be how will Chelsea FC begin their defense of their Champions League trophy. Their season opening - following some of the summer's most exciting transfer - has been hot-and-cold. In their first two EPL matches against weaker opposition they looked a master-class; however they lost to EPL title-holders Manchester City in the Community Shield and got steam-rolled by Athletico Madrid's Falcao. The biggest talking point of Chelsea will be their aging defense (which is shaky along with all of the Premierleague giants) and how they will line up their bevvy of midfield stars. Hazard's stats are tear-jerking-amazing for the start of the season, although he has disappeared for their two losses to City and Athletico: something to keep an eye on, especially when Chelsea play Juventus. Qualfication from this group is all-but-certain, but other teams will be eyeing up the London free-spending giants to see what chinks can be found in their evolving armor. I am excited to see how new boys Oscar and Marin do in Europe and to see how Juan Mata continues to evolve as the future of Spanish football. 

Juventus returns to Europe after a lengthy absence due to their infamous match-fixing scandal which hit the light in 2006. One of only two Series A teams in the Champions League, they are far-and-above the strongest representation for the declining Italian league (boo, hiss, hiss, hiss? Is that what I hear from those in denial?). Juventus played some exciting football domestically last year and will look to replicate in Europe. Featuring the backbone of the Italian NT in Buffon, Pirlo and Barzagli, it will be interesting if Juve can show the exciting flair that Italy -suprisingly - demonstrated at the Euros. Juventus spent rather conservatively in the summer and could be missing the key players necessary to advance too far, but their return to top flight European competition will be worth watching. 

GROUP F (Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov)

The biggest story from this group will be if last year's bridesmaid Bayern Munich will once again lead a lethal assault on Europe. While perhaps a little inconsistent in the forward department, Bayern Munich has the best selection of midfielders in world football: Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Kroos and Tymoshchuk are joined by Martinez and Shaqiri (one of the stand out performers in last year's CL). It would be a fool to not expect Bayern to make it deep into the tournament. The key will be consistent performances from forwards Gomez and Muller, who occasionally develop two left-feet at inopportune moments. 

Valencia - who looked impressive versus Real Madrid and Barca - should comfortably qualify out of this group. I suspect Lille's opportunity to advance out of the group stage departed with Hazard.

GROUP G (Barcelona, Benefica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)

This group pits Barcelona against three whipping boys. The real story will be Tito Vilanova's debut year as head coach of Barca: will he be able to make the same impact on Europe that Pep Guardiola (arguably the greatest CL coach since the start of the tournament) did? Barca's La Liga form has been impressive, but they did lose the Super Copa to Madrid and their issues with defense were exposed as was their over-reliance on Argentine menace, Messi (teams will be looking to the man-marking job that Xabi Alonso, Pepe have been doing to keep the diminutive genius in check). They could qualify out of this group with their reserves however and the real story will develop in the elimination rounds. Some interesting storylines to follow: 1) will Fabregas be included in the team regularly? 2) will Song be another "Hleb" and waste away on the bench following his departure from Arsenal? 3) the development of younger players in the squad such as Telo, Jordi Alba, Thiago Alcantara and Cuenca, particularly in the later match-days of this group. 

Second spot in this group is up for grabs. However, I think that the ever-present Benefica will walk away with it with Celtic depleting in quality (and challenging matches following Rangers dismissal to the pit of Scottish football). Their Portugese and South American players are consistent (Luisao, Bruno Cesar, Maxi Pereira and Nicolas Gaitan regularly impress) and have provided challenges to top teams - such as Manchester United. Spartak Moscow - while entertaining - can never really provide a convincing CL performance. 

GROUP H (Manchester United, Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj)

My love for United is no secret. As far as groups go, United probably has the easiest selection out of all the major seeded teams in Europe. However, if one recalls last season, they had a similar group but were undone by the likes of Basel and Benefica. I feel United will have learned a lot of lessons from last season and will not take their qualification for granted. United's biggest enemies will remain: injury and an uncertain defense. Last season saw a record amount of injuries and United seemed to hold back in Europe because of it. Secondly, I am not the least bit convinced by the current state of the defense. Vidic is noticeably less sharp after his long absence and Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra are both in a state of decline. However, the central defensive backups (Evans, Jones and Smalling) are consistently injured and consistently inconsistent. Teams playing United will be aware of this and pepper them with runs and shots, hoping to expose these growing weaknesses. On a bright side their forward attack looks to be improved with the addition of RVP and Kagawa and the fitness of these two players will be key if United hopes to advance into the later stages of the tournament. United still need to find someone to play as a holding midfielder in the Roy Keane style (the absence of this position is more noticeable in European competition, particularly against teams such as Barcelona) with Anderson looking to step into the role (although his fitness is always in doubt). While the heart believes in the team's potential to always end up top of the dog-pile, my head says that United will not be making a fourth appearance in the final (in the last six years). 

Braga - from the ever-improving Portugese league - appear to be the most likely team to qualify alongside United, although don't discount Galatasaray, as the Turkish teams can be determine and provide very challenging home games to visitors with their hostile atmosphere. 

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

Who will be in the final four? I am willing to bet that the final four will look suspiciously similar to last year with Real Madrid and Barcelona both contending to be champions of Europe. Expect Bayern Munich to make it far in this tournament as well. The fourth spot on paper looks to belong - once again - to Chelsea, although I wouldn't rule out Juventus or Manchester City (if they qualify out their group). 

Champions' League 2012 / 2013 Pt. I

The beginning of the Champions' League is one of my favorite times of year. Hands down the best football is played in this tournament and every year there are some mouthwatering match-ups between Europe's elite clubs, plus an array of teams pushing to be known as the next season's giant-killer. I get a little sentimental whenever I hear the Champions' League anthem for the first time each season, knowing what lies around the corner: excitement, drama, exaltation, dejection. 

Some groups have more standout sagas than others. Here are my comments on what to look out for along with a few predictions. 

GROUP A (Porto, Dynamo Kyiv, PSG, Dinamo Zagreb)

Ibra: worth the pay stub?

Rest assured the headlines for Group A clashes will be of a financial nature: will PSG's millions be able to buy them advancement into the tournament? With Porto the only clear standout in this group, PSG's advancement would seem all but guaranteed, but after drawing the first of their three games in France's League 1, the PSG experiment seems to be fumbling. PSG will hope that their big summer signings of Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva and Lavezzi start paying dividends. With a starting lineup that is increasingly looking like a FIFA 2013 fantasy lineup, PSG will be turning heads. PSG reminds me of Man City right after they had a billion dollars thrown at them: huge pay stubs, very little chemistry. Expect some headline making surprises in this group as teams with much more chemistry break down PSG. Although he had a hot-and-cold EURO, Porto's Moutinho managed to stay with his club despite suitors from the EPL and looks like being the potential stand out player in this group if his play-making form continues from the previous season. 

Prediction: I am going to let my pessimism shine through and say that: Porto and Dynamo Kyiv advance. 

GROUP B (Arsenal, Schalke 04, Olympiacos, Montpellier)

New boys celebrate against Liverpool. 

The "irony" of this group is that the most talked of player will not even feature in it: Robin Van Persie. On paper this is a very nice draw for Arsenal to feature nicely on the top of the group, but rest assured if Arsenal fail to score RVP's name will be exhausted in football columns everywhere (and face it, if they score "in spite of" losing RVP, they will write about him regardless). Arsenal is looking to have the best defense in the EPL and should be able to keep many clean sheets against three teams with limited CL pedigrees. The recent performance of Podolski and Cazorla at Liverpool demonstrate that Arsenal might be creating a strong attacking side, which can only get better as players return from injury. 

I expect the second place to go comfortably to Schalke 04 as they get another good performance from Dutchmen Huntelaar and new-loan Afellay. 

Prediction: Quite easily Arsenal and Schalke 04. 

GROUP C (AC Milan, Zenit St. Petersburg, Anderlecht, Malaga)

Will Malaga announce themselves to the world this CL season?

AC Milan - much like Arsenal - will have journalists talking about who they sold, rather than their performances. Losing two of their star players to PSG - Ibra and Thiago Silva - the team looks to be in a bit of shambles. Their 5-1 thumping to Real Madrid in a summer friendly demonstrated how thin their defense appears without Silva and conceeding three to Juventus and one to Sampdoria demonstrated that AC Milan is potentially in a spot of trouble defensively. AC Milan never really replaced either player and with Pato constantly injured and Robinho being Robinho, AC Milan might have a tricky season. 

Malaga in 2010 joined the list of clubs who have "oil"-igarch sugar daddies. While they haven't spent as debaucherously as PSG, City or Chelsea, they have tossed some coin around. The opening of their La Liga season has looked promising and they look like they can make waves with their play. However, like PSG a lot of their purchases are aging: Saviola, Demichelis, Baptista, etc. Will this team be able to contest on multiple fronts? Time will tell. 

Zenit has demonstrated in previous seasons that they can play well as a team and aren't intimidated by bigger teams. I expect them to be the surprise performers of this group with their talented array of foreign players such as Bruno Alves, Danny, Hulk and new-boy Axel Witsel combining with the Russian stars to make a good perfomance. 

Prediction: Tough one. I am going to say AC Milan simply because of pedigree and Zenit St. Petersburg. 

GROUP D (Real Madrid, Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax)

Jesus wept. What a group! Four league winners and some of the biggest stars of world football all in one group: this is precisely why the CL is the tournament that it is. 

Lewandowski: top striker. 

Based purely on line-ups, it is very easy to say that Real Madrid and Manchester City will run away with this group. The starting XI and benches of both teams are arguably the two best in the world. However, City fumbled in their first European attempt last year. This CL campaign City's biggest enemy will be its weak defense - City has conceded in every EPL game and the community shield. Mancini's side is very much stream-lined to be a Luftwaffe lighting-attack side, but this has left them a little short at the back. This could pose a problem as Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund and Ajax all have lethal strikers who can pounce on any opportunity given to them. However, if City rediscovers the defensive combination of last year, they will prove to be a stiff competition to all. 

For myself, the biggest talking point will be Borussia Dortmund - a team I have absolutely fallen in love with. Combining the best players from Poland (Kuba, Pisczek, Lewandowski) with some of the key young cogs in the German machine (Reus, Goetze, Hummels), they are a master-class team. Despite having significantly less finances than Bayern Munich (last year's CL finalists, lets not forget) they dismantled them on three separate occasions last year. Their performances in the CL have been luke-warm and last year they failed to convert their domestic form abroad. However, they look as lethal as ever once again, and they will itching to upset people's predictions for this group by qualifying for the next round. With both Real Madrid and City demonstrating defensive weaknesses expect Kuba-Reus-Lewandowski to take advantage with a trademark quick combination to take advantage. 

Predictions: Real Madrid for certain. Second place? Head says: City. Heart says: Borussia Dortmund.