This post will look at the big four teams (realistically) involved in a chase for the title this year; I acknowledge that other teams such as Everton and Tottenham should be included in an assessment of potential "top four" teams, but I am - for time constraints - purely interested in the race for the trophy. In the interest of a pre-amble, I should point out my suspicions that this might be one of the most open races since the mid-2000s, when you had three-four teams running down the trophy till the final weeks.
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| Manchester City's Joe Hart in a familiar pose this September. |
MANCHESTER CITY
Last three EPL results:
3-1 W vs. QPR
1-1 D vs. Stoke City
1-1 D vs. Arsenal
Man City have only won a single game in their last five attempts; said alternatively, they are win-less in their last four (they lost in a thriller to Real Madrid in the CL; as I start writing this they lost to Aston Villa in the Capital One league cup). Thanks to a strong start, they are only six points off of Chelsea's pace (and 3 points behind arch-rivals, United). However, Mancini and the fans of City should take a moment to notice that there are points for concern which need addressing. First and foremost, Manchester City have not had a clean-sheet since the pre-season; alarming for a team which boasted a respectable defensive record last year. What is happening? One suggestion might be that the 3-5-2 all-out attack of City is finally being broken down by it's opponents who are exposing the three across the back; that certainly might be the case (City have allowed 43 shots to be taken against them which puts them slightly above the average for the EPL). Although, I think the answer might lie in a significant stat: Joe Hart has one of the worst stop percentages in the EPL at the moment (http://www.thescore.com/epl/goalie_splits/clean_sheets). Considering some of the heroics that Hart pulls out week-in and week-out, this is certainly a jaw-dropper although statistics don't lie (in this case; only in positivist approaches to the social sciences).
City's fans - and apologists - will no doubt point to the absence of Aguero as a potential reason for this drop in win-rate; although the previous section definitely merits examination by even their most die-hard supporters. City is leaking goals.
What about the mid-field? In the interest of time - story of life - I will focus on two divergent players. Yaya Toure is having another great season for Manchester City and could certainly be credited with keeping them in the title-race with his play-making and (surprisingly quick) runs into the enemy's box. On the other side of the coin: Silva was a puppet-master for City last season and I just don't feel that he has recovered from being an awkwardly placed appendage in the European Cup's Spanish side. Don't get me wrong: he isn't playing poorly by any step of the imagination, but he isn't the force he was last season.
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| Chelsea will want to see a lot more from new-boy Oscar in the EPL. |
CHELSEA FC
Last three EPL results:
2-0 W vs. Newcastle
0-0 D vs QPR
1-0 W vs. Stoke City
Chelsea are the league leaders and are looking to hold onto that position (although their bout with Arsenal this weekend might have major consequences for the title race). They are unbeaten this season in the English Premier League (with their only loss being vs. Athletico Madrid in the Super Cup).
Rather than harping about their obvious pros, let me focus on a few little chinks that have made appearances throughout this early season. First and foremost, their games in Europe versus Athletico Madrid and Juventus have shown that their defense is capable of making defensive errors (with an aging John Terry and an unpredictable David Luiz predictably the culprits). The fact that these errors are showing up against stronger sides demonstrates that perhaps Chelsea will not fare as well when faced against other title challengers (their biggest challenge being a so-so Newcastle side). And therein lies the clincher: Chelsea seems to be performing very differently versus weak and strong sides and I suspect that it might have to do with Eden Hazard's unconvincing displays in important fixtures. Hazard has been one of the players of the season if you look at Chelsea's victories. However in losses (and an unfortunate draw) versus Manchester City (Community Shield), Athletico Madrid and Juventus, Hazard has often found it hard to get into the game, often appears lost in the action and gives away sloppy passes to the opposing teams. This will definitely be one of the areas of the field to watch. I am curious - as an impartial observer - how Chelsea will try to incorporate an in-form, youthful Oscar into the side, as well as Marko Marin when he returns to fitness.
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| Gervinho must have sacrificed hair-growth for a third lung. |
ARSENAL
Last three EPL results:
2-0 W vs. Liverpool
6-1 W vs. Southampton
1-1 D vs. Manchester City
Most people would call an RVP-less Arsenal an outside shot for the title at best, although I would suggest that - barring injuries devastating the team - Arsenal will keep pace with the pack for the duration of the season.
Why? First and foremost, their defense is enviable. They have only let in two goals this season. The first one was versus Southampton and it featured Szczeny's return to play after an absence due to injury (while a bit of a howler; I think it was a reflection on match-fitness rather than current ability); the second due to a zonal defending mishap versus City (sidenote: when has zonal defending off of corners ever worked?!? Especially in the EPL. Man-marking or bust),, where Arsenal tried an unusual method of defending a corner and it didn't pay off. Sczceny's form and zonal defending blunders should be kept an eye on, but Arsenal look good defensively (even if they are letting an above average shots pepper their goal; most appear to be from a safe distance).
Cazorla and Podolski continue to impress going forward with Podolski netting in three games on the trot; Cazorla is involved in everything and seems to be stepping into the vacant Fabregas role well. Robin Van Persie's ability to turn garbage-balls into goals (a skill he honed last season) will be missed in some of the big games, but the excellent play and work-rate of Podolski will keep the Arsenal fans pacified for the season. Additionally, in Podolski - more of a winger than a striker - they have a newfound ability to hold the ball up, rather than a traditional No. 10 to just bang the balls in (a role which RVP occasionally reverted to). A surprise revelation this season for Arsenal is Gervinho's work-rate, which is extraordinary - it is like having a new player on the field. Every play he is somehow involved in. Admittedly rough around the edges, this work-rate has been a positive force for Arsenal so far.
The biggest discernable con for Arsenal is Giroud not fitting into the team at all; his poor touch in front of the net has only been surpassed by his terrible pass percentage. This might prove a problem for them as it will make the team unduly have to rely on the fitness and form of newboy Podolski and low-scoring (albeit doggedly hardworking) Gervinho.
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| Vidic mimicks the fans' reaction over news that he's injured once again. |
MANCHESTER UNITED
Last three EPL results:
3-2 W vs. Southampton
4-0 W vs. Wigan
2-1 W vs. Liverpool
As you can see United has the best record in the last three games, being the only title-contender to put out three wins (they also sneaked out a win in the CL). However, there are a lot of asterixes that need to be addressed. Before I address the worries that Manchester United are facing, I will address the positives which have helped United achieve their results.
Robin Van Persie and Kagawa - despite missing the Wigan game through slight injury - have been at the heart of United's good form. It's pleasant to see that my positive evaluation of their potential has held, five games in. Robin Van Persie dissuaded his doubters - who I admittedly I was until I saw him bag his first goal in a United shirt - with his heroic three-goal performance versus Southampton. Kagawa was voted the player of the month for August by United fans and rightly so - every win (outside of Wigan) has his stamp on it. His vision, fitness, ability and consistency are a testament to why Ferguson needed to have this player in his side. Other standout performances have been by Valencia (arguably the most consistent crosser of the ball in the EPL) and Carrick. The debuts by Buttner and Powell versus Wigan were sublime; with in particular Buttner displaying one of the most determined wing-back displays I've seen in the LB position in YEARS.
However, there are asterixes. Huge asterixes. The left side of the midfield is looking a little vacant; Nani cannot get off the ground this season and actually has been a larger hindrance to the team than an aid. Ryan Giggs has been moved more towards the center when he plays (where bless-his-heart he looks pretty indifferent and sloppy). I would almost advocate playing Buttner as LMF (since Fergie will no doubt insist on Evra remaining in the side) since his wing-play and ability to pop up in key attacking plays was apparent in his debut.
The biggest asterix remains - for a second consecutive season - the defense and goalkeeper. This is for two reasons: defense and ability. United spent all their loot this summer on attacking options, but only purchased an attacking wingback for defensive cover. The arguments that people posed were that: Vidic is returning, Smalling, Jones and Evans exist as cover. First and foremost, Vidic is now going to be out for two-months after a mandatory knee surgery (propagating evidence for the theory that you can never truly regain fitness after a long absence). Secondly, Vidic HAS NOT LOOKED remotely comfortable with the defensive burden that was dropped on him since his return; he has not looked like the same player. His pace, positioning and decision-making have been off. Last season he complemented the the errors in Rio's game to make Rio still relevant; this season they are both looking uncomfortable together and allowing way too many shots against a terrified looking goalkeeper. Thirdly, Smalling, Jones and Evans have proven during their tenure at United that they have all the fitness potential of Wes Brown (meaning, that they are fit less than 50% of the time). This translates into: another patchy season where Fergie will be scrambling to put together ANY defense, much less his best one.
On a related note: David DeGea has not won me over. I gave him the benefit of the doubt, but the fact remains that a goalkeeper between Manchester United's posts needs to have raw ability and - most importantly - good decision-making skills. DDG has amazing natural ability but quite clearly less-than-average decision-making skills (lower half of the table goalkeepers are dealing with set-pieces and crosses better than he does). Lindegaard has been the better of the two over both seasons and I hope that Fergie will continue to let the young Dane have a run out.
In summation: the EPL is open ground for every team. The three teams who would be cited as clear favorites (MUFC, MCFC and CFC) all have emerged with defensive struggles and patchy performances in the midfield; the team written off as an outside shot at best, AFC, has emerged with the strongest defense. GAME ON!!
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