Thursday 6 September 2012

Champions League 2012/2013 Pt. II

Welcome back. For the next four groups, the dominant favorites are much more clear, so I'll focus most on points of interests and players to watch out for. 

GROUP E (Chelsea, Shakhtar Donetsk, Juventus, Nordjaelland)

Group E is relatively straightforward. While two seasons ago Shakhtar Donetsk demonstrated why they shouldn't be taken lightly after they dismantled Inter Milan in the R16, the likelihood of them being able to replicate this is questionable. And I've never heard of Nordaelland ...

The big story will be how will Chelsea FC begin their defense of their Champions League trophy. Their season opening - following some of the summer's most exciting transfer - has been hot-and-cold. In their first two EPL matches against weaker opposition they looked a master-class; however they lost to EPL title-holders Manchester City in the Community Shield and got steam-rolled by Athletico Madrid's Falcao. The biggest talking point of Chelsea will be their aging defense (which is shaky along with all of the Premierleague giants) and how they will line up their bevvy of midfield stars. Hazard's stats are tear-jerking-amazing for the start of the season, although he has disappeared for their two losses to City and Athletico: something to keep an eye on, especially when Chelsea play Juventus. Qualfication from this group is all-but-certain, but other teams will be eyeing up the London free-spending giants to see what chinks can be found in their evolving armor. I am excited to see how new boys Oscar and Marin do in Europe and to see how Juan Mata continues to evolve as the future of Spanish football. 

Juventus returns to Europe after a lengthy absence due to their infamous match-fixing scandal which hit the light in 2006. One of only two Series A teams in the Champions League, they are far-and-above the strongest representation for the declining Italian league (boo, hiss, hiss, hiss? Is that what I hear from those in denial?). Juventus played some exciting football domestically last year and will look to replicate in Europe. Featuring the backbone of the Italian NT in Buffon, Pirlo and Barzagli, it will be interesting if Juve can show the exciting flair that Italy -suprisingly - demonstrated at the Euros. Juventus spent rather conservatively in the summer and could be missing the key players necessary to advance too far, but their return to top flight European competition will be worth watching. 

GROUP F (Bayern Munich, Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov)

The biggest story from this group will be if last year's bridesmaid Bayern Munich will once again lead a lethal assault on Europe. While perhaps a little inconsistent in the forward department, Bayern Munich has the best selection of midfielders in world football: Ribery, Schweinsteiger, Robben, Kroos and Tymoshchuk are joined by Martinez and Shaqiri (one of the stand out performers in last year's CL). It would be a fool to not expect Bayern to make it deep into the tournament. The key will be consistent performances from forwards Gomez and Muller, who occasionally develop two left-feet at inopportune moments. 

Valencia - who looked impressive versus Real Madrid and Barca - should comfortably qualify out of this group. I suspect Lille's opportunity to advance out of the group stage departed with Hazard.

GROUP G (Barcelona, Benefica, Celtic, Spartak Moscow)

This group pits Barcelona against three whipping boys. The real story will be Tito Vilanova's debut year as head coach of Barca: will he be able to make the same impact on Europe that Pep Guardiola (arguably the greatest CL coach since the start of the tournament) did? Barca's La Liga form has been impressive, but they did lose the Super Copa to Madrid and their issues with defense were exposed as was their over-reliance on Argentine menace, Messi (teams will be looking to the man-marking job that Xabi Alonso, Pepe have been doing to keep the diminutive genius in check). They could qualify out of this group with their reserves however and the real story will develop in the elimination rounds. Some interesting storylines to follow: 1) will Fabregas be included in the team regularly? 2) will Song be another "Hleb" and waste away on the bench following his departure from Arsenal? 3) the development of younger players in the squad such as Telo, Jordi Alba, Thiago Alcantara and Cuenca, particularly in the later match-days of this group. 

Second spot in this group is up for grabs. However, I think that the ever-present Benefica will walk away with it with Celtic depleting in quality (and challenging matches following Rangers dismissal to the pit of Scottish football). Their Portugese and South American players are consistent (Luisao, Bruno Cesar, Maxi Pereira and Nicolas Gaitan regularly impress) and have provided challenges to top teams - such as Manchester United. Spartak Moscow - while entertaining - can never really provide a convincing CL performance. 

GROUP H (Manchester United, Braga, Galatasaray, CFR Cluj)

My love for United is no secret. As far as groups go, United probably has the easiest selection out of all the major seeded teams in Europe. However, if one recalls last season, they had a similar group but were undone by the likes of Basel and Benefica. I feel United will have learned a lot of lessons from last season and will not take their qualification for granted. United's biggest enemies will remain: injury and an uncertain defense. Last season saw a record amount of injuries and United seemed to hold back in Europe because of it. Secondly, I am not the least bit convinced by the current state of the defense. Vidic is noticeably less sharp after his long absence and Rio Ferdinand and Patrice Evra are both in a state of decline. However, the central defensive backups (Evans, Jones and Smalling) are consistently injured and consistently inconsistent. Teams playing United will be aware of this and pepper them with runs and shots, hoping to expose these growing weaknesses. On a bright side their forward attack looks to be improved with the addition of RVP and Kagawa and the fitness of these two players will be key if United hopes to advance into the later stages of the tournament. United still need to find someone to play as a holding midfielder in the Roy Keane style (the absence of this position is more noticeable in European competition, particularly against teams such as Barcelona) with Anderson looking to step into the role (although his fitness is always in doubt). While the heart believes in the team's potential to always end up top of the dog-pile, my head says that United will not be making a fourth appearance in the final (in the last six years). 

Braga - from the ever-improving Portugese league - appear to be the most likely team to qualify alongside United, although don't discount Galatasaray, as the Turkish teams can be determine and provide very challenging home games to visitors with their hostile atmosphere. 

OVERALL PREDICTIONS

Who will be in the final four? I am willing to bet that the final four will look suspiciously similar to last year with Real Madrid and Barcelona both contending to be champions of Europe. Expect Bayern Munich to make it far in this tournament as well. The fourth spot on paper looks to belong - once again - to Chelsea, although I wouldn't rule out Juventus or Manchester City (if they qualify out their group). 

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